Rwanda: Why I quit as President Paul Kagame’s economic advisor: his tyranny and lies
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| Things aren't looking good.(Reuters/Finbarr O'Reilly) |
Written By
David Himbara
Former presidential aide, Rwanda
January 15, 2015
Source: Quartz
For Western governments, financiers and opinion leaders,
Rwandan president Paul Kagame offers a Faustian bargain: Overlook my brutal
behavior, and I will offer you a model for economic growth in an African
nation.
As with Dr. Faustus, who sold his soul to Satan, Kagame’s
admirers will be bitterly disappointed.
While sacrificing human rights on the altar of economic
growth, Kagame is delivering neither democracy nor prosperity.
Kagame’s descent into despotism has been documented by
respected sources, ranging from Human Rights Watch to the US State Department.
In recent years, a growing number of Kagame’s critics have died under
mysterious circumstances, even in exile. Opposition political parties and
independent newspapers have been suppressed. Many Rwandans have fled the
country, while many more have been scared into silence.
All the while, Rwanda receives almost a billion dollars
annually in foreign aid from the United States, the United Kingdom and their
allies, and Kagame continues to receive invitations to prestigious conferences
from Davos to the White House.
While Kagame’s apologists boast that he has achieved an
“economic miracle,” Rwanda’s performance remains mired in mediocrity. Having
served as Kagame’s head of policy and strategy, I resigned not only because he
was tyrannizing the nation, but also because he asked me to tamper with the
truth about the economy.
Here are the facts that Kagame can’t falsify: After 14 years
of Kagame’s leadership, Rwanda remains one of the smallest economies in East
Africa. While Kenya’s annual per capita income is $1,200 and Tanzania’s is
$695, Rwanda’s is only $630.
Far from moving forward, Rwanda’s economy remains largely
informal, with most of the economically active population of 5.5 million still
struggling to survive on subsistence agriculture, just like their parents and
grandparents before them. Employment in the formal economy is only a little
more than 300,000. Rwanda’s private sector is tiny, with tax-paying firms
hovering around 113,200, of which only 354 (or 0.3%) are ”large taxpayers” with
an annual turnover of $1.4 million.
Meanwhile, crony capitalism is on the rise. Crystal Ventures
Ltd. (CVL), controlled by the investment arm of Kagame’s ruling party, has
become, in its own words, “the biggest investment company in the country.” Its
holdings include concrete products, construction, real estate development,
telecommunications, agriculture, aviation, security services, printing and
publishing, furniture trading, manufacturing, property management and engineering.
Because of its small tax base, Rwanda is dependent on
foreign assistance. Of the national government’s $2.4 billion budget for
2014/2015, $777 million will come from development aid from overseas. Rwanda
has the highest foreign aid per capita in east Africa—$77 per person, compared
to Burundi’s $53, Kenya’s $61, Tanzania’s $59 and Uganda’s $46.
While foreign governments contribute almost 40% of Rwanda’s
budget, foreign direct investment from private sources is small. In 2013,
Rwanda received only $110 million in foreign direct investment, compared to
$1.8 billion for Tanzania, $1.1 billion for Uganda and $514 million for Kenya.
Far from being a powerhouse in the global economy, Rwanda’s
trade deficit is growing, having reached $443.1 million during the last quarter
of 2013 alone, while its exports are declining. From January through September
2014, exports were valued at $247 million—a 10.5% decline from the same period
in 2013.
How does this disappointing economic performance translate
into Rwandans’ living standards? On two crucial social indicators—education and
health—Rwanda falls short.
In education, Rwanda may be pursing the quantity of
enrollment over the quality of learning. According to the United Kingdom’s
Department for International Development (DFID), which has put considerable
resources into Rwanda’s education: “To achieve near-universal primary
enrollment but with a large majority of pupils failing to attain basic levels
of literacy or numeracy is not, in our view, a successful development result.
It represents poor value for money…”
Meanwhile, according to the World Health Organization, the
ratio of health workers per 10,000 people in Rwanda is 0.6 for physicians, 6.9
for nurses/midwives, and 0.1 for dentists. This is far below the African
average: 2.6 physicians, 12 nurses/midwives and 0.5 dentists per 10,000 people.
The failure of Rwanda’s Faustian bargain—trading democracy
for development and ending up with neither—should come as no surprise to
students of history and human nature.
A dictator who can’t be questioned; an elite that dominates
the economy; and an atmosphere of anxiety—these are not the formula for
economic growth. In Africa as elsewhere, people do their best work in an
environment of freedom, not fear.
We welcome your comments at ideas@qz.com.
posted by Mamadou Kouyate @ 8:20 AM
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