By Deo Lukyamuzi
October 27, 2009
Another chapter or sub-chapter in our country’s history is being written the main ingredient aspect of which, will be the 2010 presidential elections. United Democratic Forces (UDF-Inkingi) will be one of the principal writers of that chapter.
For the past 15 years, Rwandans have been witnesses to the good and the bad in our opponent, the Rwanda Patriotic Front and its allies within its government. On the other hand however, while Rwandans may have heard of UDF-Inkingi, our physical presence on the political scene, will give them an opportunity to weigh and compare on which side their future, under all considerations is better invested.
At this point, after 15 years people have a pretty good idea of what are RPF’s strength and weaknesses, its good and ugly side though, they do not know what UDF-Inkingi is capable of. This will mean that we have a harder job ahead of us than the RPF led government but, it is also a chance to help the people make an informed choice.
As a policy, RPF has used brutality and successfully instilled fear in the population. They have consistently and systematically broken the spirit of the people and made them give up to fate. Rwandans feel a great sense of injustice being meted on them by RPF government and its tentacles of security and intelligence down to the village level yet, they see no way out and for that matter, choose to suffer in silence.
This will be our first and in my opinion, most important challenge to reverse the national psyche to make people believe again –believe in the political process, believe in their inalienable rights, their strength to shape their destiny, believe in their capacities to say, NO to intimidation, believe in their right to make a choice of who they wish to see as their leader.
Understanding our opponent as honestly as possible, is a step in the right direction. RPF and its army leadership is a very organized group. They have everything to lose in losing power and they are very conscious of that fact. All their future is invested in staying in power and that will explain why they will go at any length, use any tricks in the book, to stem out any meaningful opposition from taking root. The same rough terrain awaits UDF-Inkingi. Intimidation, harassment, coercion, bribing, arrest, and worse will be exercised upon us. These, have been used before with a measure of success against MDR, PADER, ADEP and others even within RPF, on dissenting members of the party and government.
UDF-Inkingi has to stand strong to weather the storm and prove itself to our people that, we are not an opposition like any other they have seen before, being devoured by RPF but that we have come for a historical purpose, wrestling power from RPF and steer the country to a secure, peaceful, prosperous, democratic future and predictable future.
The Odds
During its tenure, RPF has portrayed itself as bulwark between good and evil in Rwanda them, being on the side of good. This is more so to the international community where at least publicly RPF is acknowledged as a force of good therefore, whatever its shortcomings, compared to the transitional genocidal Sindikubwabwo Theodore government or the later day FDLR, RPF wins hand down. And this is true even to me and should be to us all. The RPF government has continued to present FDLR as their opponents and as an extension of the post RPF band of genocidaire. It has been and continues to be a winning strategy, because by comparison, it makes RPF look like angels.
RPF ushered in ‘peace and stability’, again due to comparison. When one looks at the 1990-1994 and 1994-todate records in terms of peace and stability, even the most biased observer has no choice but give it to RPF. Most observers prefer a simpler assessment rather than delving into details, behind the scene operations and implications.
What we see as a truly disheartening economic situation for the people, RPF has created a façade of economic progress in Kigali. I am sure all of us have heard flattering comments of the wonders being made in ‘Rwanda’. This view is based on two fallacies: one, the reconstruction and maintenance of Kigali City; and two, the much tooted Information Technology (IT) infrastructure underway in the country.
The immediate the above holds a lot of sway in the international community, both among policy makers and business community. Our daunting task will be to deconstruct that misconception by showing a wholesome picture of the state of affaires in Rwanda as opposed to only Kigali and while not objecting to modernization, campaign for modernization for all and in a realistic way.
Besides the above, we expect our opponent to associate us with all the negative aspect of our country’s past and present. It is one of their effective tools in throwing in disarray who it perceives as its enemy. In RPF’s world view, not sharing its viewpoint is synonymous with being a genocide denier, genocidaire sympathizer or an outright genocidaire. Under this shadow, many of RPF opponents are painted untouchables, arrested under Gacaca court system or encouraged to flee the country.
Our Offer
UDF-inkingi is a unique political organization. It brings together people from different social and political backgrounds. It bridges generations and encompasses diverse positive aspirations. Having started out as an alliance of different political tendencies, UDF-Inkingi, is a manifestation that unity is possible, something that has eluded the country under RPF leadership.
Our values of unity in diversity, quest for justice, economic prosperity for all, freedom of expression and uncompromising respect for human rights and our commitment to meaningful democracy and good governance, sets us apart from RPF.
It is impossible for Rwandans to attain the above values under RPF because they (values) are a direct contradiction to what RPF stands for. Many observers have always claimed that RPF squandered an opportunity of national good will, upon taking power in 1994. This observation ignores the all important detail that RPF has never been a populist organization and for that matter popularity or lack thereof, has never stood in the way of what RPF wants to do. At its core, RPF wants to be feared than loved and that is why you will see more stick and hardly any carrot when dealing with RPF. It is true, since taking power RPF has lost a lot of credibility on both democratic and national reconciliation fronts but having both would require RPF compromising which it doesn’t know how to do except under its terms when it fits in its calculations.
I n a nutshell, Rwanda will never see democracy or national reconciliation as long as RPF is in power.
In UDF-Inkingi, the great lakes region, Africa and the rest of the world have an opportunity to have a true partner with whom to solve security challenges be they full-blown or low intensity. We do not share RPF’s burden of the continuous need to cover-up its past. Unlike RPF, UDF-Inkingi does not have the proverbial skeletons in the closet. That alone will mean less wars and proxy wars that RPF has been waging over the years to prevent any chance of looking at its not-so-innocent record.
We shall bring about genuine, long lasting national reconciliation and be a genuine partner in regional peace initiatives.
UDF-Inkingi will bring about constitutional reforms by amending chapters and articles in whole or in part, that were intended to criminalize any political opposition to RPF government. UDF-Inkingi will bring about changes in the criminal code and do away with laws whose sole purpose is to muzzle and silence Rwandese who, hold different views from those of RPF.
Our Economic model will be based on prosperity for all and for that matter our efforts will be centered on uplifting the overall welfare for all Rwandans through prioritizing food security and access to market, access to healthcare, and education.
One cannot emphasize enough the importance of leaders respecting democratic choices at any level be it at a party or national level. I will say it again this, in the eyes our country men and women, and the international community, will distinguish us from RPF. UDF-Inkingi has to succeed where RPF failed.
Scenarios
At this point in time as we prepare ourselves for the 2010 presidential elections, a reality check is our best friend. Earlier, I mentioned the various actions the RPF government will do to upstage, disorganize and destroy us as a party. I am almost sport on, on what is going to happen therefore fore-warned, is fore-armed. We need to look at the different scenarios and prepare in advance what our actions (I will not discuss those in here) will be. Beyond that, we will need also to devise strategies to be ahead of our opponent, knowing him as we do, offence will be our best defense.
This stage of the struggle is not for the faint-hearted, it will be, as a matter-of-speech, a baptism of fire. I believe in a positive campaign and a message of hope however this is not synonymous with complacency and showing weakness. After being dampened for the past 15 years, Rwanda’s spirit needs uplifting. Whereas we cannot ignore wild accusations that RPF will through our way, promising Rwandans of fairness and compassion on the part of government and its institutions towards the people, will inspire more determination on their part. While drawing lessons from the past, focusing on the future is our best bet.
There are some, very real questions to think about and come up with answers:
1. What if the National Electoral Commission refuses to register UDF-Inkingi as a legal Political Party;
2. What if UDF-Inkingi is denied of access to venues for meetings and rallies;
3. What if the people are brutalized, intimidated and scared from attending UDF-Inkingi meetings;
4. What if some of UDF-Inkingi leaders are framed and arrested ;
5. What if UDF-Inkingi is registered, do we hope to have resources to run a successful campaign;
6. What if we win the elections and what if we do not win;
7. What if the elections are massively rigged;
8. What are our plans after elections?
RPF has cultivated an image of a non-vanquishable organization. I actually believe this to be a fallacy not bone by history, not in Rwanda and not anywhere in the world. RPF has very many weaknesses that can be exploited to defeat it in whatever sense you want to think of. The fact of the matter is, the weaknesses of the opposition are stronger than those of RPF hence the interpretation.
As I mentioned earlier, RPF does not believe in popularity but in military strength. That renders it structurally vulnerable in the face of a formidable, fearless and determined opposition – which UDF-Inkingi intends to be. We shall appeal to the people to be behind us in our quest to demilitarize their day to day living.
It is going to be a battle of wits, tenacity, steadfastness and the inherent belief that Rwanda is a country for all, the political space belongs to all those who have ideas to share and that we owe ourselves the courage to bring the democratic change we wish for our country
Diplomacy
It will take enormous pressure to force RPF yield. Our own efforts will be greatly enhanced and aided by Rwanda’s bilateral and multilateral partners both in the west (Europe and America) and in the region. Part of our efforts should be geared towards, having the international community pressurizing the Kigali regime to open up the political space and allow the opposition the freedom to campaign without intimidation.
Election observers and monitors in great numbers will be more than ever needed before, during and after elections to bear witness to elections malpractice. There is a good example to learn from of the recently concluded and disputed elections in Afghanistan.
Organizations, Communities and trading blocks to which Rwanda belongs or is applying to join; UN, AU, COMESA, EAC, Commonwealth and others will be equally instrumental in making the Kigali regime behave. None of the above condones dictatorship within their member countries so they should not give Rwanda a blank check.
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Rwanda: National Electoral Commission (NEC) ignores UDF-Inkingi’s request to participate in the Draft Electoral Code debate
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Rwanda: RPF's Paranoia Over UDF-Inkingi
Interview with FDU-UDF chairwoman Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza 18 - 01- 2009
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Rwanda 2010: Another Kenya? Another Zimbabwe?
Rwanda: Exiled Opposition Planning for Presidential Elections
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