Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Rwanda: Elections in the shade of the genocide

By Marcel
mblog...gute Aussicht
July 11, 2010

At first sight it looks like it is not there anymore: the genocide of 1994. In the Central African country of Rwanda, which is just a little bigger than the German Federal Land Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, nearly one million people have been killed 16 years ago. In Kigali, the capital city, the scars are being filled with cement. The construction of a 70 meter high skyscraper is almost completed. Other high-risers are already planed. The capital is the mirror image of president Paul Kagame's country. The time before the upcoming elections in August shows that it is a distorting mirror.

Rwanda is a surprising proper and organized country, says Raphael Breyer, who works for the German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in Kigali since April. “The coaches are punctual and there is no garbage on the streets.” This tidiness is part of Paul Kagame's policy. During the genocide he fought for the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) against the majority of Hutus who started the violences. Today the RPF is a political party and Kagames mission is a different one.

“Kagame transports a vision. This is what makes him different from most of the other African leaders”, says Raphael Breyer from the GTZ. He wants that Rwanda becomes a mid-income country until 2020. It should be the IT-hub of East-Africa and get a better infra- and social structure. But there are also a lot of dark sides on the way to this goal. One example is building policy in Kigali. The government does everything to develop a modern cityscape, says Raphael Breyer. “For example, they come to your house, put a red cross on it and say that you have to build a five-level construction at this place until next year. If you are not able to follow this advice they pull down your house and you are forced to auction off your land.”

Developement yes, opposition no

This consequence at all cots characterizes Kagame's thinking. In 2003 he was elected with 94 percent by the citizens at the first regular elections since the genocide. During the first election period not only the cityscape of Kigali has changed: English replaced French as official language. Since the end of last year Rwanda is part of the Commonwealth and wants to be part of the global market. And Kagame wants to continue with this policy.

On August 9th there will be the next elections and it look good for the current president. “Kagame is definitely the winner”, says Susan Thomson. She is Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Ottawa and runs a watch blog that covers the upcoming elections. Indeed there are opposition parties but they are all loyal to the government. Actually they are block parties. The registration of new parties is also very difficult. The candidate of the green party, for example, tries to register since one year, says Rapael Breyer from the GTZ. “But they say to him: 'You need 10.000 signatures. Oh, you already have 10.000 signatures? – Well, you need 15.000.'”

The elections also throw a light on another aspect. The heritage of the genocide still has the country under control. Although progress has come to Kigali, many members of the government have another point of view. The case of Victore Ingabire takes this contrast to the surface. She came back to Rwanda in January to lead the opposition against Kagame, after living many years in exile in the Netherlands. But a few month after she announced to candidate, she was accused to have violated a law which prohibits the use of genocide ideology. She was arrested and released on bail the next day. Her passport was seized and she cannot leave Kigali limits.

“The government uses this law as a political tool”, says Susan Thomson from the University of Ottawa. There is no concrete definition what exactly genocide ideology is and what it is not. At the end it is the decision of the government. At the end of May even the US-lawyer Peter Erlinder came into conflict with the law and was arrested. He went to Rwanda to assist Ingabire in the law suite. Meanwhile he was released on bail and is back in the USA. Ingabire is still under house arrest in Kigali and is not allowed to leave the country.

Genocide: red rag and political tool

The case of Erlinder has produced some attention of the international community. Several observers suspect that the tense situation might lead to riots. Alexander Stroh, who works for the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg does not think that there will be bigger acts of violence before the elections in August. “The police forces of the country are very well positioned and very effective. I think it is quite unlikely that there will be big outrages.”

A bigger problem is how the government deals with the genocide. “If you talk in a political way about Hutu and Tutsi, it might be criminal under certain circumstances”, says Alexander Stroh. This shows the mentality of the current government: Prohibitions and the attempt to define everything with force how it should be.”

Susan Thomson's explanation for this mentality is the composition of the political elite. The members of the government are almost exclusively Tutsi. “Parts of Kagame's cabinet really think, that the Hutu hate them and want to kill them.” This shapes their policy. Some of them have a real paranoia, which might also be one reason for the genocide-law. They have a victim mentality which makes them very insecure and fearful.“ It is not all of them but Kagame is not a very well adjusted guy.

"We don't want a second genocide"

Hence after 16 years the genocide still shapes the country. This does not only affect the upcoming elections and the treatment of the opposition. It also influences the chances of the general population. Mamadou Kouyate was born in Rwanda. He left the country in 1989 for university studies abroad and came to the USA as refugee in 1999.. He is the only one of his family who was able to get there. Now his relatives who survived the genocide need his financial support. “My brothers and sisters do not have jobs and depend on me even though some of them have college degrees. Because they are not seen as genocide survivors they do not get any support from the government.” They are Hutu, but only Tutsi get the support. The society is still distinguished into two parts.

Mamadou Kouyate does not believe that Kagame stands for the majority of the people in Rwanda. “If there would be free and fair election there were no way for Kagame to win. He would not even get ten percent.” Nevertheless he hopes that there will be peaceful elections and a change someday. “We don't want a second genocide. There have to be another way. Violence has never led to peace.” There has to be a national dialog to reach a compromise between the ethnical and political groups in the country – a long way to go. Until then the scars of the country are being covered by cement.

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