Hungry for Truth, Peace and Justice

Rwanda: RPF's confusion between ethnic majority and political majority

By IngMa Ba
January 30, 2010

The issue of the ethnicity that has been made a taboo by the Rwandan government while at the same time same government still makes statements around it.

For instance, Kagame's view that Rwandans must view themselves only as Rwandans and stop using the words “Hutu” and “Tutsi” comes under fire when his government sustains that the only political parties that will be allowed to exercise political activities in the country will be those that can prove to advocate the unity of all ETHNIC GROUPS based in Rwanda.

Another good example is found in the article 14 of the Rwandan Constitution which says:
"The State shall, within the limits of its capacity, take special measures for the welfare of the survivors of genocide who were rendered destitute by the genocide committed against the TUTSIS from October 1st, 1990 to December 31st, 1994, the disabled, the indigent and the elderly as well as other vulnerable groups."

Therefore, it is clear that ETHNIC GROUPS still exist in Rwanda. However, mentioning them openly in the public (as a student in Rwanda once pointed it out to a foreign journalist: at school or at work I am Rwandan, but at home I am Tutsi…) is a felony under the Rwandan criminal law.

In Rwanda, there are nearly 85% Hutus and 14% Tutsis. Democratic elections in Rwanda would probably give back the power to a "Hutu" movement.

This analysis has always been in the RPF’s calculations with regard to plausible results of democratic elections in Rwanda.

The RPF leadership suggests that such results simply denote "confusion between the ethnic majority and the political majority."

Since 1993, the RPF leadership estimates that such results would inexorably relegate it to the opposition for an indefinite period of time.

Indeed, this is the case for the UPRONA of Pierre Buyoya in neighboring Burundi since the democratic elections of June 1993 and 2005.

This also is the case in South Africa where democratic elections have thrown the National Party of De Klerk (now renamed the Democratic Alliance) in the opposition since 1994. That is root cause of the current DRC crisis in the province of North Kivu.

Any Rwandan and/or friend of Rwanda should take a closer look at what the CNDD-FDD accomplished in neighboring Burundi.

One should also recall that Burundi represents a good specific example because both Rwanda and Burundi share the same ethnic composition of their populations not to mention a similar dark history of sporadic ethnic cleansings.

The CNDD-FDD painfully but straight forwardly negotiated with the rebellion movement Palipehutu-FNL.

Interestingly, beyond all expectations, a peace deal was concluded, simply because the CNDD-FDD is not longer afraid to face the PALIPEHUTU-FNL in democratic elections.

Let me make it clear:

The “HUTU FACTOR” does not and will not absolutely play any role between the CNDD-FDD and Palipehutu FNL supporters during the upcoming Burundian presidential elections. These political parties have the obligation to play modern politics.

Their respective leaders, including the FRODEBU leadership, will have to propose to the Burundian Hutu voters something smarter than the length of their noses during the upcoming electoral campaigns.

Concerning the ethnic composition of the Rwandan population and the political mind set of the Rwandan voters, these two parameters are not prone to any change in the near future. The Republic of Rwanda will always be inhabited by a majority Hutu and minority Tutsi. Given such a situation, the RPF cannot indefinitely run away from the democratic elections. It must have the courage to face them right away.

Should the RPF lose these elections, it will have to learn from its mistakes of the past. It is now time for the RPF to get ready for the upcoming political defeat, rather than attempting, without any perspective of political reforms in the near future, to delay these democratic elections. Sooner or later democratic elections will be held in Rwanda.

That is the way the Rwandan history course has been drawn and nobody can change it. People who are still skeptical about such a realistic approach should take a closer look at South Africa where the white racist regime has done everything it could in the past to delay democratic elections by denying the voting rights to the black people. The white racist regime already knew that black people (the majority) would likely vote for a political movement mainly composed of black people.

Fortunately, there was not much the white racist regime could do about this ethnic composition of the South African population and this situation will undoubtedly last several centuries to come.

What would then the white racist regime have done to keep its head above water? Continue to be stubborn by fear of losing democratic elections? Continue to spread proxy wars in neighboring countries, under the umbrella of waging the war against the communism system, and establish a huge protective shield, spanning from Namibia to Mozambique not to mention Zimbabwe and Angola?For how long the white racist regime would have blocked the actual course of the South African history?

That is what Frederick De Klerk thoroughly understood and I strongly believe that this is probably why he won the Nobel Peace Prize that he shared with Nelson Mandela. That is also why the ANC needs a comprehensive plan that would improve the quality of life for all South African black voters besides the credit it already enjoys for having successfully fought against the apartheid.

The stake could not be higher for the ANC. It must address the social concerns of all South African people, create jobs, provide lands, decent housing, affordable healthcare system and access to higher education, etc. rather than selling out the fact of being a “black” movement.

Interestingly, that is exactly what Pierre Buyoya of Burundi has come to realize lately. Actually, there is no doubt that Pierre Buyoya deserves strong respect from the Burundian people, despite his many terrible mistakes of the past and strong disagreement from his own party leadership.

In Rwanda, one can still delay the opportunity to alleviate the sufferings imposed to the Rwandan people. However, one should keep in mind that such an attitude does not mean that the Rwandan history will not ultimately relegate the RPF into the opposition for an indefinite period of time.

Therefore, it is time for the RPF to lift its many blockades to such a great opportunity in the Rwandan history. That is how the eastern DRC might regain its lasting stability. The time for proxy wars in DRC is over. It is time for the RPF to cope with its weaknesses and humbly accept the change the Rwandan people have been waiting for.

It is time for the Rwandan people to stand up and request for a secured RPF hideout in the opposition. Unless the RPF accepts to play modern politics, it will not escape from this unfortunate fate. Keeping running away from this process by intensifying headlong rushes denotes a political anachronism of a failed regime.

Unfortunately, such an attitude inexorably prolongs the sufferings of the Rwandan people who are desperately begging for help. Tenacious memories still rime in so many Rwandans who survived RPF atrocities both in Rwanda and DRC. Therefore, the more the RPF will intensify its headlong rushes, the longer will be the time it will have to spend in the opposition ranks.

In the forthcoming 2010 Rwandan presidential elections, the RPF will finally have one more chance to make up its mind set for the common good of the Rwandan people.

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posted by Mamadou Kouyate @ 12:31 AM