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ANALYSIS-Rwandan rebels elude joint offensive in east Congo

By Finbarr O'Reilly


PINGA, Congo, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Rwandan Hutu rebels are melting into eastern Congo's bush before advancing Rwandan and Congolese forces, in a sign the surprise joint offensive will not quash militia groups at the heart of 15 years of conflict.

United Nations peacekeepers have reported a tenfold increase in the rate of rebels surrendering over the last month as hardliners are loosening their grip on fighters, but analysts say the offensive is unlikely to achieve its goal on time.

"The Rwandan army was here for seven years and never bothered us. What can they do now?" asked a mid-level commander of the 6,000-8,000-strong Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), who refused to give his name.

The commander spoke in the forest near the village of Pinga, where several hundred Rwandan troops had just arrived as part of the joint operation in eastern Congo's North Kivu province.

Last month Congo invited Rwanda, a neighbour that has fought two wars against the government in Kinshasa, to send thousands of soldiers into Congo's east to hunt the Hutu force. Some of the rebels took part in the 1994 slaughter of Tutsis and moderate Hutus, which sparked years of violence in Africa's Great Lakes.

As the Rwandans advanced 200 km (125 miles) west in the last week, the FDLR simply melted into the bush and surrounding hills.

Even wearing a bright red t-shirt with the word "DUBAI" emblazoned across the chest, one machine-gun toting rebel fighter was invisible in the dense forest -- and only emerged from the shadows when his commander whistled.

"Maybe they just came to kill our families. We are afraid to go home because we will be killed. There is no peace in Rwanda, so we are ready to fight," the commander said.

Rwanda refuses to negotiate with the FDLR, which it says is bent on continuing to kill Tutsis. Operations have destroyed some rebel bases but there has been little fighting with the FDLR, many of whom were too young to take part in the 1994 genocide.

Rwanda's interventions in Congo's two wars since 1996 were justified by the need to hunt the Hutu rebels. But the Tutsi-led army ended up ousting one president, backed several rebel groups and was frequently accused of abuse and plunder.

Congo is widely seen to have struck the deal in return for Rwanda's help ending a Congolese Tutsi rebellion which Kinshasa accused Kigali of backing as late as last year.

Lawmakers in Kinshasa have signed a petition calling for a debate and more transparency on the operation, which neither they nor the U.N. mission was consulted on. Meanwhile, Rwandan parliamentarians have called for the operations to be extended beyond the end of February deadline, which Congo gave Rwanda.

Analysts say the FDLR may be dislodged from some bases, thinning in numbers and using rusty small arms with limited supplies of ammunition. But they are hardened survivors of the bush and won't be easily eliminated, even with Rwandan help.

"There is no way the FDLR can be defeated by the end of February. This operation is a huge gamble and it's not clear if it will pay off," Anneke Van Woudenberg, a Congo analyst for Human Rights Watch, told Reuters.

DESERTIONS UP TENFOLD

The FDLR have integrated into life in eastern Congo, where they mine, farm and are accused of preying on civilians.

The 17,000-strong U.N. mission has struggled to encourage disarmament but now says rebel desertions are picking up as hardline rebels lose their grip on those keen to leave.

"The U.N. usually demobilises about 30 FDLR fighters and dependents per week, but that number has jumped to 300 per week since mid-January," said U.N. demobilisation chief Bruno Donat.

Fears that the FDLR will hit back at their Congolese hosts if they are attacked are acute after some 900 civilians have been killed in reprisal attacks following a multinational attack launched in December on Ugandan rebels in Congo's northeast.

"The FDLR has turned against the local population in some places. There may have been wide scale slaughter by FDLR. They are also using people as human shields," Van Woudenberg said.

Massacres have been reported near Masisi, west of Goma.

Justin, one of a handful of farmers left among the looted kiosks and broken doorways of Mnjenje, is scared."We are afraid the FDLR will come back and attack us."


Source:
Reuters

Related materials:
Rwanda: Members of Parliament want joint DRC-Rwanda military operations extended
Congo army says kills 40 Rwandan rebels in air raids

posted by Mamadou Kouyate @ 6:34 AM