Rwanda: A Fake Report on Fake Elections
By Filip Reyntjens
Professor of African Law and Politics
University of Antwerp
Belgium
For the full report, please click can here
Last Monday, the EU Electoral Observation Mission released its final report on the legislative elections held in Rwanda in September 2008. The presentation happened quite discreetly in Kigali, and the story was not picked up by the international press. When reading the report, one understands this discretion and why this release happened months after the date initially announced.
In his opening remarks at the press conference, the Chief Observer, British MEP Michael Cashman, stressed that “The process of democratisation in Rwanda since the end of the genocide is remarkable”. However, that is not really what the report implies. Although often hidden in technical language, the mission reports major flaws in the electoral process. For instance, in 76% of the polling stations observed, the ballot boxes were not sealed; in 73% of the cases the upper slot of the ballot box was not sealed after the end of voting, a fact which, in the report’s own prudent wording, “could have left room for potential electoral abuse”. The consolidation process, a crucial moment as it is here that the results are “made”, is assessed by the mission as “poor or very poor with procedures not properly followed in 63.9% of the cases”. These percentages relate to operations observed by the mission, i.e. 576 polling stations out of a total of over 15,000. One can only image what has happened in places where no observers were present.
All this might be seen by some as minor defects without substantial impact on the outcome of the elections, were it not that the mission knows very well that the “imperfections” noted in its report are just the visible signs of a massive electoral fraud. Indeed, according to several of its members, the mission found out that the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) had been too efficient in intimidating the voters and fixing the ballot, as it obtained 98.39% of the vote. This observation is based on a very robust sample size of 24.96% of the total vote (which gives a standard error for the smallest sample of under one percent). Realising that this result looked too “Stalinist”, the regime modified the results: officially the RPF obtained 78.76%, and two other parties were credited with 13.13% (PSD) and 7.50% (PL). Although the mission is fully aware of this manipulation, it is not mentioned in the report, which is thus as fake as the elections it pretends to analyse.
The “generosity” of the RPF of course does not in the least diminish the fact that this was a massive and centrally organised fraud. Indeed, it is as if no elections had taken place: it was the RPF that decided its share of the vote and that of the two other parties. There are at least two lessons in this story. The first is that less serious faults in elections elsewhere would lead to strong criticism and possibly sanctions by donors, but that
The second lesson relates to the EU observer mission. It is a useless way of spending taxpayers’ money if what is observed is not reported. As a matter of fact, it is worse than useless: it is counterproductive, as it sends a signal to the Rwandan regime that it need not worry about conducting free, fair and transparent elections in the future.
posted by Mamadou Kouyate @ 1:39 AM
6 Comments:
I am deeply shocked by your observations. As a member of the Dutch parliament I will immediately ask parliamentary questions
Arend Jan Boekestijn
This is the beauty of the information age. Information that's normally hidden comes out although not to as many people as mainstream media. I commend the author of this blog for being the voice of the voiceless.
Obviously, some powerful countries are deliberately carrying out a racial genocide using Kagame as a proxy. This man has never hide attrocities he ruthlessly committed everywhere he lived. He has used all means of human extermination possible. May be that's why he was chosen by the British government to lead their proxy war in Rwanda and Congo.
It is beyond an human comprehension to see a guy like Kagame, carrying out a genocide in two countries in a 8 span, in the eyes of the international community and continue to get free passes everywhere. Probably those who were supose to report their observation of the elections were not allowed to report any thing that would irritate the British protege Kagame.
We cannot give much excuses about the flaw in Rwandan elections, for a people who for decades has been introduced to the polling station. Bring broken ballot boxes, intimidating voter, etc, are not related to being a young democracy. It is instead another of the many ways the British government has devised in order anger the many who are not happy with the regime, thus stir more conflict leading to the extermination. They know very where how Kagame responds. He has demonstrated it so many times through wiping out villages by killing all, men women, children and senior, undre the pretext of finding one insurgent.
There is lots of rubbish on this blog. But knowing the proprietor of this blog, i will admit that i am not surprised. Having worked with the genocidal regime, how could Filip speak with a different voice?
Honestly, your facts are quite erroneous and i am wondering which report you are refferring to. But for one second, let's be practical and think in a linear manner... Where was Rwanda in 94? Genocide, collapsed economy, complete chaos..
Where is Rwanda today? Secure, growing (average GDP growth of 8% over the last 8 years), almost corruption free, clean, orderly, and many more.
Rwanda is today a world model for post conflict development and reconciliation.
For you to understand the excitement with which Rwandans talk about their country you would have to visit and not seat behind hiding behind your Phd and claiming to be some king of Great lakes region expert.
In Rwanda, development is litterally palpable, you can see it everywhere, buildings are being erected, the city is bubbling with entrepreneurs setting up shop from throughout the region. Much of this development if not all, Rwandans owe it Kagame...
Dear Truth,
Thanks for stopping by my blog and leaving a comment.
With regard to my blog guidelines, ignorant comments such as yours psted above, will be dedicated to their own posts. They will subsequently be deconstructed and shredded to the nothingness and emptyness that they indeed are.
Watch out in cominng days. So don’t be surprised.
Beware: My blog is not a “let’s let Kagame and/or any sympathizers spread their propagandas.”
In the meantime, please think twice about the following alarming statements about the sufferring of the Rwanda people under the Kagame’s regime. They all are from reliable sources such us UNICEF, WB, IMF, ActionAid, HRRF, and renowned researchers.
-More than 50% children in Rwanda are stunted.
-Rwanda is off track to attaining most of its millennium development goals.
-Rural poverty is dramatically increasing in Rwanda, Belgian researcher An Ansoms reveals.
-Rwanda is starving while the government says criticism is unfounded.
-Members of one minority tribe (the Tutsis) have seven times more representation in the government, per-capita, than members of the majority tribe (the Hutus).
-Rwanda has gone from being a “low-inequality” country in the 1980’s to being in the world’s bottom 15% in terms of inequality today.
-One-third of Rwanda’s population now suffers from nutritional deficiencies, and life expectancy is among the 20 lowest in the world at only 44 years.
-Wealth and power are concentrated in the cities, the government’s stronghold, leaving 92% of the poor in underrepresented rural areas.
Also please keep in mind that I personnally visits Rwanda on a regular basis basically, once every year.
I know what a misery the majority of the Rwandan people are in.
I have brothers, sisters and in-law family members who currently leave in Rwanda.
So stop do spreading your lie propagandas that Prof ip Reyntjens and I are out of touch of the reality on the ground in Rwanda.
The “Truth” can be suppressed for while but it cannot be burried forever. This is true in Rwanda, today.
Mamadou
nice
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